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But anyway, what I'm trying to do here is revisit of the ANALYSIS (not portfolio) that you provided to the community.

A year ago, you shared this investment analysis with the Prosper community at blog.prosper.com: “If you properly diversify your portfolio and properly set your limits, you should be well on your way to building a profitable lending portfolio.” And you went on to predict that your properly diversified portfolio would yield 11% ROI.

Now that it's recognized that your portfolio may well prove not to be profitable, does this change your mind about accuracy of the analysis and the value of the strategy you provided to your fellow Prosper lenders? If so, howz about letting your Prosper readership know? …first hand? I think your acct at prospers.org still works.

According to Prosper, my account value is currently sitting at $2,725.77, which would be a bit over 7% ROI (on $2,550). My average loan age is 290 days, so annualized it's about 8.5%. Of course, I'm not that naive to believe that my ROI is going to be 8.5% since I currently have six loans that are over 15 days past due.

The six loans that are late, represent $280.55 of the account value and I would say most of that is at risk. The worst case would be if all six default and nothing is recovered. If that were to transpire, I would be at -4.1%, or about -5.2% annualized.

Some of those accounts have since been charged off and my current value stated is $2,615.89. The balance of accounts later than 15 days is $285.71. If all were to default, it would put my balance below $2,330 or a loss of at least -$220 or about -8.6%.

The loss will actually be a bit more than that, because $285.71 is only the balance and does not account for the accumulated interest on those balances that Prosper includes in the total account value. My average loan age is about 320 days, so on an annualized basis that is about -9.7%. So potentially if all my current late loans default, my annualized loss could be somewhere in the neighborhood of about -10%.

Obviously I've not attained the ROI I would have liked. Feel free to pass it along to the good folks at prospers.org.